PJA     
      ZESZYT Nr  31/ 2017    Abstrakty
      Volume No. 31/2017     Abstracts

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1. Zmiany częstości anomalii termicznych w Polsce w latach 1951–2015 – Robert Twardosz

Abstrakt.
W pracy ukazano zmiany częstości anomalnie zimnych i anomalnie ciepłych miesięcy w Polsce i jej bezpośrednim sąsiedztwie od 1951 do 2015 roku. Podstawę badań stanowią średnie miesięczne wartości temperatury powietrza (tśr.) z 19 stacji meteorologicznych. Jako kryterium wyłonienia anomalii termicznych przyjęto wielkość odchylenia standardowego (tśr.±2σ). Wykazano, że w Polsce, podobnie jak w całej Europie, ocieplenie klimatu dokonuje się w większym stopniu przez wzrost częstości anomalnie ciepłych miesięcy niż spadek częstości miesięcy anomalnie zimnych oraz że ocieplenie to wyraża się także powiększeniem zasięgu występowania anomalnie ciepłych miesięcy na początku XXI wieku.


Słowa kluczowe: miesiąc anomalnie zimny, miesiąc anomalnie ciepły, zmiany klimatu, Polska

CHANGE IN THE FREQUENCY OF TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES IN POLAND, 1951–2015

Summary

The paper discusses changes in the frequency of anomalously cold (ACM) and anomalously warm (AWM) months in Poland and its immediately adjoining areas over the 65-year period spanning 1951–2015. The author based his research on monthly average air temperatures from 19 weather stations and employed the criterion of two standard deviations (2σ±tav.) to identify an anomaly.
    ACMs were most frequent in the first 15 years of the period, which accounted for 16 out of the total of 35 ACMs. In subsequent five-year periods, the frequency was much lower and varied from nought in 1970–1975 and 2011–2015 to four in 1986–1990. December 2010 was the last recorded AC month of the period. Conversely, no AWMs were identified during the first 10 years of the period, after which AWMs occurred at a steady rate of one in each five-year period, until 1990. The subsequent five-year period marked a leap in their frequency to four, while a record number of nine occurred in 2006–2010. December 2015 was the last recorded AWM. Anomalous months, especially AC, typically covered areas smaller than the whole territory of Poland, and only seven covered all the country. All the nationwide wintertime ACMs were recorded by the middle of the period while all such months in summer occurred in the early 21th century.
    Research shows that both in Poland and elsewhere in Europe the climate has been warming more through an increase in the frequency of anomalously warm months than by a decline in anomalously cold months and that the warming was also manifested by an expansion in the geographical extent of anomalously warm months in the early 21st century.
    The transient climate of Poland is typified by high temperature variability. During the study period, temperature anomalies covering the whole territory of the country occurred on average once every ten years, but were distributed very unequally in time.

key words: month anomaly cold, month anomaly warm, climate change, Poland 

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